Brazil, Chile and Mexico are the trio of Latin American nations the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) expects to show good growth potential over the next five years – but the body also flags up the need for progress in areas such as grid-integration, regulation and logistics if they are to fulfil that potential.
From 3.7GW of new wind capacity in 2014, the Latin America and Caribbean region – excluding Mexico – should top 5GW as an annual average through 2019, says GWEC’s annual market update.
In cumulative terms, it should reach 2019 with 33.5GW installed – a 294% increase from the 8.5GW in place at the end of 2014.
Mexico, which falls into North America for GWEC’s purposes, will be helped by recent energy reforms and the introduction of an auction system as it attempts to meet its 2024 target to obtain 35% of its power from renewables, half of that from wind.
According to GWEC’s report, there are still some regulatory barriers that need to be overcome by the Mexicans, such as the establishing of an independent national grid operator and annual targets. The council sees 9.5GW of wind installed in the country by 2018 up from 2.6GW in 2014.
Brazil, which has already contracted over 11GW in recent auctions, will continue to lead the region. Despite economic and political problems, it should remain strong as it continues to build already-contracted wind projects, and as the government has signaled continuation of such policies.
The sector, however, will need to overcome the logistics problems of transporting turbines and components across thousands of kilometres on bad roads to wind farm sites, and increase training of personnel.
By 2017, wind in Brazil should surpass gas-fired generation to become the second power source in the country, and add 12GW-13GW by 2019.
Chile is also a fast-growth country. After having installed a record 506MW in 2014, it started 2015 with 836MW spinning. The Chilean government has reaffirmed a 2025 target to obtain 20% of its power from renewables, and has reformed power regulations to improve contract conditions at auctions.
By 2019, GWEC expects Chile to add 300MW to 400MW a year from a pipeline of 5.2GW, but it also has to solve some regulatory problems and expand its transmission grid to accommodate the new wind projects.
The GWEC report also mentions Uruguay, which continues to surprise with fast growth and is set to reach its renewable targets soon. In 2014 alone, the 3.4 million Uruguayans saw 405MW of new wind being installed – almost 10 times the 56MW spinning at the end of 2013.
Elsewhere, Peru should restart its stalled renewables projects through auctions this year, while in Central America, Panama and Costa Rica are leading the way.
Argentina, with 53MW installed in 2014 and around 270MW cumulative wind, continues to drag the region down despite its huge untapped resources.
According to GWEC, unless there is a change in government and energy policies, the country’s wind power sector is not expected to take off any time soon.
GWEC flags LatAm wind-power potential – and challenges
No comments:
Post a Comment